Not An Exact Science

As a rule, weather forecasting is pretty good these days. Your 48-hour forecast is usually about 90%+ reliable, and even 72-hours out you’ve got a pretty decent chance of being in the ballpark more often than not.

Every rule can be broken.

We’ve been watching the weather forecasts closely, since we’re getting ready to pour concrete again and we’re on a tight deadline. On Tuesday morning there was a meeting in which I specifically looked at multiple weather apps on my phone and saw 0% chance of rain today through tomorrow afternoon, a 10% chance of rain for tomorrow evening, and 0% chance of rain for the next several days after that.

Here’s the current radar:

capture-2016-12-21-2215

Photo credit: National Weather Service

We’re under one of those red spots. It is freakin’ coming down in sheets and buckets.

The first sign of any change was this morning when we woke up. The local morning news guy sounded confused, saying there were light showers moving into the area that had “caught them off guard.” The prediction then was for spotty, off and on showers for a couple of hours.

capture-2016-12-21-2225

Photo credit: National Weather Service

It has rained off and on all day, but about 6:00 tonight, it really started to come down. Driving home from our office Christmas party, there were whole blocks where the street flooding was so bad that, for the first time in my 45+ years of driving, I really wasn’t sure that I was going to make it through. At one point I thought I was going to be a news story tomorrow, under the headline of, “What In Hell Was He Thinking?”

Oh, and the weather forecast for the next several days? Steady rain through tomorrow morning, tapering off for about 12 hours, then on Friday from about noon on into early morning Saturday an even bigger storm moves in. Granted, we need the rain after five years of drought, but a little “head’s up!” would have been appreciated.

We’ll see. Your 48-hour forecast is usually about 90%+ reliable…

2 Comments

Filed under Los Angeles, Weather

2 responses to “Not An Exact Science

  1. Of course, all those climate scientists are lying, and climate change has no effect on the weather patterns anyway. 😉 Good luck with the concrete. It’s too frosty for it here.

    Liked by 1 person

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