(Gene Wilder to Zero Mostel, sucking his thumb and in a fetal position, when they’ve found out that “Springtime For Hitler” is going to be a smash hit that will run forever on Broadway: “No way out. No way out. No way out.”)
We’re fine – still nothing that close to us, although another new fire has apparently started up over to the east by Monrovia.
Being Saturday, I was out at the hangar in Camarillo. The first big fire in this current sequence of six or seven fires started not too far from there and is still burning.
Map from Google.
For reference to assist those not familiar with Southern California, this is Ventura County, just to the north of Los Angeles. We live at the far west end of the San Fernando Valley in Los Angeles County – on the right-hand border you can just see the edge of the dot that indicates where. The Camarillo Airport is just under the “101” icon between the words “Oxnard” and “Camarillo.”
For scale, from my house to the airport is about 35 miles on the freeway, almost exactly 25 miles as the crow flies. From my house to Carpenteria, on the far left edge of the map and just south of Santa Barbara, is about 50 miles directly.
This is not a small area. It’s “local” by Southern California standards, but it could cover the better portion of several states in New England.
Here’s what’s burned in this fire (which is in turn, as I said, one of about six going on right now):
Map from Google and CalFire. Scale is similar to the one above.
The fire started near Santa Paula on December 4th, spread toward Ventura, and is now moving up into the mountains and up the coast toward Carpenteria.
What’s that look like from the ground at Camarillo Airport?
On the far left you can see the smoke plume from the main fire up toward Carpenteria. Straight ahead you’re looking up toward the Santa Paula and Fillmore area. When I got there this morning things had started to die down a bit overnight, but the winds were starting to blow again.
By lunch we were looking at 30 mph winds with gusts to 45 mph. In the mountains and canyons where the fire was, it was worse. Naturally, this led to a number of flareups.
Looking toward Carpenteria.
Looking toward Santa Paula
I also learned that two of our CAF SoCal members lost their homes, burned to the ground. One of our members got out with literally just the clothes on his back, managing to get out in his wheel chair in the middle of the night when he woke with the house burning, finding his cars on fire in the driveway, and saved only because a neighbor saw him as they were bugging out and drove him to safety.
The winds are supposed to continue into tomorrow and then start dying down in the next week, but there’s no rain in the foreseeable future and these fires are now pushing up into the mountains where they’ll be very difficult to fight. There’s a lot of brush after a very wet winter last year and most of these areas haven’t burned in decades. These fires may still be burning well into 2018.
(We’re still fine – the winds of last night caused some serious problems up in northern Ventura County [35-50 miles away] and tonight the winds have kicked up down in San Diego County [80-90 miles away] but things near us seem a bit more calm. Still many schools closed for the rest of the week, still some scratchy eyes and sore throats from smoke, but that’s the worst of it. For us. For now. Things can change in an instant.)
Back in the day I used to love playing a computer simulation game called Outpost. The Earth’s going to be destroyed, you can put together one ship to go elsewhere and build a colony, and so on. Sort of like Sim City with a bit of Armageddon thrown in for kicks.
You started the game by figuring out what you want to take. It’s all a juggling act limited by mass and physics. Lots of people? Great, but you only get to take enough food and water for a month. A couple years’ food and water? Great, but you only get to take a dozen people. More seeds or more machinery? A full nuclear power plant, or a windmill (plus a lot of food and people) and hope you find a planet with wind? A set of weather and communication satellites? Or take your chances with ignorance and whatever comes over the horizon, just like the good old days?
Last night was a bit like that.
Scenario One: You wake up at 02:34 AM with the fire department pounding on your door and the sky orange, smoky, and making it almost impossible to breathe. You have thirty seconds to get out with your life. You take…
Without preparation, you pull on clothes, take your car keys, wallet or purse, phone, maybe a briefcase that might have an iPad or other valuables in it, and you hope to get out with your car and your life.
If you’re playing the game, you do all of that and you grab that “red” box that you put by the front door with the credit cards, passports, birth certificates, death certificates, spare cash, and a few days of your medications.
Scenario Two: Same, except you have five minutes…
Without preparation, you run around like a lunatic and get to safety, only to spend the rest of your life second guessing yourself, wondering why you left this and that to burn to the ground while you took clothes you hardly ever wear, a television that you could have replaced in five minutes for $300 at WalMart, and a generic set of pots and pans.
If you’re playing the game, you have a list and you’ve double checked where items on the list are and verified that they’re ready to grab and go. (If the fires are a bit closer and more likely to move in your direction, you probably have everything on the “five-minute list” in the hallway by the front door, right next to the “red” box. If the fires are really threatening, you probably put it all in the car now, just to be safe in case five minutes turns into thirty seconds.)
Also, if you have pets, plan for them. Do you have carriers for them, or leashes? Food? Water? Treats? Toys? Meds?
This is where the juggling starts. You can play these scenarios all night long. What’s on the “five minute” list? What slips to the “fifteen minute” list? What do you jam into the van if you have an hour? Two hours?
For me, five minutes gives time (with proper preparation) for the wedding photos, jewelry, computers, photos, suitcases of clothing (if they’re pre-packed), family movies and video.
Fifteen minutes lets me start grabbing the unique and irreplaceable items, as well as the simply expensive. Signed books. The good wedding china and silver. Paintings. Sports memorabilia.
Once that’s done, depending on time and space (sound familiar? do I need to bring a backup lander or hospital?), once I’ve secured all of the one-of-a-kind items that simply can’t be replaced at any cost, then it’s time to start prioritizing what to take that can be replaced but would be expensive or difficult to replace.
Play the game now. Do it in your head. Take notes. Play it in slow motion with no actual life-and-death emergency staring at you right outside the door. Run through it again and see what you missed. Re-weigh your priorities. Walk around and see again what you might have missed. Then make those five minute, fifteen minute, and one hour lists and put them someplace where you can grab them in thirty seconds.
It doesn’t matter where you live, there is something out there that’s gonna bite you in the ass one of these days. Fire, flood, hurricane, tornado, mudslide, volcano, tsunami, Republicans – something’s coming that you’re going to have to run for your life from.
As I wrote earlier tonight on Facebook in response to a number of friends from back east who were asking:
Thanks to all of you who have asked about our situation in relation to the brush fires going on in LA. Right now we’re fine. It’s an inconvenience but no actual danger, at least not to us.
Some smoke to make our eyes scratchy and allergies kick up, plus lots of horrible traffic as major freeways get closed for days. The wind that’s driving the fires is also a pain, but so far our only damage is to our Christmas lights and a handful of small branches broken off of trees..
The fires themselves are all at least 10-15 miles away from us – LA’s a really, really big place. Our biggest danger would be if another fire broke out upwind of us (Simi Valley, Porter Ranch, etc) and was driven in our direction. Then we might need to think about what to put in the car and things can change quickly. (The fire in Ventura County went from zero to 40,000 acres in less than twelve hours.) But so far, so good.
That was four hours ago. Then all the phones in the house went off at once:
This warning was sent out by text message to over 10,000,000 phones in Southern California.
Apparently the relative humidity is already in single digits and is expected (in some areas) to drop down to about 4%. The winds are expected to be at 40-50 mph with gusts in the mountains (where the fires are) and below the canyons (where the fires are) up to 80 mph – or worse.
We woke up this morning to a fourth major fire, this one right in the Sepulveda Pass, between the San Fernando Valley and Santa Monica, along the 405 Freeway which normally carries a few million cars a day. I’m sure you’ve seen the video.
So, we’re good. For now. But it’s enough to have me spending the evening pulling some boxes off of the shelves and making a couple of lists and being ready. Because we may get that 30-second or 5-minute or 15-minute notice to evacuate.
I would rather think about it now, than a 04:23 AM.
Nothing particularly close to us, but three large, larger, and freakin’ huge brush fires have broken out within about thirty miles of us, with at least a couple more fires further inland out toward Riverside and San Bernardino.
From my office this morning the clouds of smoke from the fires in Sylmar and Santa Clarita made the sun reddish-brown like a dirty sunset.
As of this evening’s update from CalFire:
Creek Fire, Sylmar, 11,337 acres, 0% contained
Rye Fire, Santa Clarita, 5,000 acres, 5% contained, 1,300 homes evacuated
Thomas Fire, Ventura County, 50,000 acres, 0% contained, 27,000 homes evacuated
It will be days before we have a true handle on the extent of the damage. For example, in the Thomas Fire all they’re reporting is “150+ structures damaged,” but one of the structures in question was a 60-unit apartment building (burned to the ground) and another was the Vista Del Mar Hospital. Looking at local television coverage from the air, the number of houses that have burned to the ground will likely be far, far higher than 150.
Welcome to Southern California! Bring Bromotrifluoromethane!
Okay, so the moon was only about 97% full. Close enough for government work!
It’s tough to find a balance…
..between the moon & the Christmas lights. The dynamic range is too large!
Up close and personal…
…it’s even worse. Overexpose the moon just enough so you can still see features, and you can barely tell there are Christmas lights to be seen here. But…
…pull in the Christmas lights and the moon is completely overexposed.
This is why composite photos are needed. Or you can get artsy-phartsy…
…and just go for something more abstract.
Time to post this before the electricity goes out. It is REALLY howling out there tonight, and it’s just a matter of time before the wind brings down a tree branch and we go dark!