Category Archives: Weather

Cascading Failure Modes

We get three & four years of severe drought. Water rationing. Extreme limits on watering the lawn (unless you’re a golf course owned by a billionaire). Lawn, open areas, trees, all get brown and dry and ready to burn. We get brush fires.

Then we have two years of above-average rain. Good, now we can water the dirt in our yards. Everything out in the wildlife areas gets green and lush.

Another year of drought. All of that new green growth gets brown and dry and extremely flammable. We burn again, tens of thousands of acres in four major and a dozen-plus minor fires all over the city and county and Ventura County, Orange County, Riverside County, San Bernardino County, San Diego County… An area the size of New England is on extreme fire watch for weeks, THOUSANDS of homes and businesses are gone.

Mind you, because they’re not in the news every night, most people think those fires are out and done. They’re not. They’re just more or less contained and not threatening any more structures and homes. But as of right now the 23,448 acre Palisades fire is still only 85% contained. The 14,021 acre Eaton fire is at 95% containment.

Oh, good, here comes a few days of rain. That will help put out the fires.

Well, yes, it will, but…

This will be a “good” rain in that it should be mild, less than an inch of rain total over three days combined, with relatively little chance of any big downpours or thunderstorms with lightning, which could start new fires.

But we now have something on the order of 50,000 acres locally that’s newly burned, most of it in canyons and steep hillsides, and any hard rain will start to cause mudslides and flooding. Barren hillsides will erode like crazy with nothing left in the way of brush and trees to hold the topsoil together. It’s time for the next disaster in the chain!

On the other hand, listening to the rain in the night and smelling the petrichor is wonderful.

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Filed under Critters, Disasters, Los Angeles, Photography, Video, Weather

The Kenneth Fire

After two days of unprescedented windstorms driving a half-dozen massive brush fires in Los Angeles, with something on the order of 300,000+ people evacuated from their homes, 10,000+ homes and businesses destroyed, at least five dead with a total expected to climb significantly, multiple injured and burned people, it was starting to calm just a bit this morning. The winds were calmer, firefighters might get a chance to make some progress on containment. We were safe, we were fine.

That changed.

A little after 14:30, just maybe two miles from us as the crow flies, where Victory Boulevard ends at the Ventura County line and there are a whole slew of trails into the open parklands there, a brushfire started. About the time I started hearing a ton of sirens I got the alert from the Watch Duty app. New fire. West Hills.

The winds weren’t howling, but they weren’t calm either. Probably 8-10 knots with gusts to maybe 15. Fortunately for us, by 15:26 the winds were blowing the embers, ashes, and smoke away from us, toward Calabasas and Agoura.

Los Angeles and Ventura County fire fighters hit this one hard with aircraft, both the fixed wing water bombers and helicopters. You can see several here. I was out meeting with our neighbors, making sure that we all had each others’ phone numbers and names in case we had to scatter.

About this same time the Palisades Fire, over the ridge and off to the left in this view, shifted to the west and started moving up Topanga Canyon. That’s the massive smoke plume on the left. “Our” fire, now named “The Kenneth Fire” for some reason, is on the right.

The initial evacuations were southwest of us, south of the baseball fields on Valley Circle, past El Camino High School, pretty much all the way to the freeway. Bell Canyon, due west of us, was put on an evacuation warning, and we got a heads up to be ready. We started packing a half-dozen bags with medications, important documents, a change of clothes, a couple of my laptops and iPads, and my cameras.

I turned the cars around in the driveway so they could be driven straight out if needed. The bags were our two-minute evacuation plan – if we had ten minutes, the computers and external hard drives would follow. I wasn’t feeling particularly threatened or nervous, but there was definitely a “better safe than sorry” feel to it all. Several of the neighbors decided that they were going to leave, and did so. I heard from some later in the evening, asking if we had ever had to evacuate. (The unspoken question was, “Is our house still there?”) Most of us have been through this before at least a couple of times, and given the location of the fire and the winds at our backs, we were ready to bug out if needed, but sheltering in place for the moment.

The massive air assault worked. By 16:30, just two hours after it started, it was almost over, at least where we were.

The winds picked up once and there was a little bit of a flareup at the north end of the fire zone, but again, it was immediately buzzing with helicopters and water-dropping aircraft. The fire kept spreading to the south through open land, eventually covering just over 1,000 acres. But when it got close to houses and apartments and the 101 Freeway in Calabasas and Agoura, the air assault resumed on the southern edge of the fire and its threat was finally over.

By 17:20, just after sunset, it was over for us. (You can even see Venus in the twilight, just off the head of the streetlight.) We had our own personal little airshow going over for another three hours or so as the water-dropping aircraft went from the fire near the 101 Freeway to the Chatsworth Reservoir where they reloaded their water tanks. In particular there was a Chinook (CH-47) helicopter that kept going right over us and really rattling the windows.

It was wonderful, the sound of not having everything you own burn to the ground.

 (From the Watch Duty app)

We’re the blue dot in the upper right, about 1.4 miles from where the fire started. But it all went to the south, away from us, or we would be in a hotel tonight with nothing to our name except for what we had fled with. There are literally tens of thousands of people in Los Angeles tonight who are not as lucky as we were.

In closing, a word about Watch Duty. It’s a non-profit, a 501(c)(3), run with less than two dozen volunteers, many of them former firefighters. Throughout this event, and through previous events in Northern California last year, and the horrible tragedy in Maui last year, they have become THE definitive go-to source for timely, current, and accurate information on fire locations, evacuation orders and warnings, and available resources to help those in need due to a fire. The basic app is free – if you’re anywhere at all that might have a brushfire (and let’s face it, that’s just about anywhere these days), you need the app. And if you get it and can spare a few dollars, the paid version with a bunch of extra features and layers is less than $30/year. Please support good people doing good work.

I have nothing but eternal gratitude for all of the firefighters and pilots and crews that are working so tirelessly to keep us safe. With winds on Tuesday night of 100+ miles an hours, and a mountainous landscape that’s in serious drought conditions, they’re fighting an impossible battle, but continuing to fight anyway. I feel for all of the tens of thousands of fellow Southern Californians who tonight either have lost everything, or just don’t know yet if they have a home to go back to or not.

For me, that’s enough adrenalin for one day. Good night.

 

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Filed under Critters, Los Angeles, Photography, Sunsets, Weather

Haze & Drizzle

We started with mist, moved up to drizzle, and this evening we got to light rain.

A nice evening. Quiet. The occasional coyote and owl sounding off.

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Filed under Critters, Photography, Weather

Signs & Portents

Well, isn’t THIS just a fine fucking little nightmare!

I don’t even have words to start to express my disappointment and disgust with my fellow Americans.

Then I came out to this on the front porch this morning. It might have been an omen. Or is it a portent? Whatever.

Having the US flag ripping loose and hanging upside down seemed to be appropriate, especially with the leftover Halloween skeleton there.

(Image from ForeFlight app)

Probably not quite a sign from the gods – the winds had been pretty viscious all night. Whiteman was reporting winds at 45 knots, gusting to 60 knots, with Van Nuys, Camarillo, and Burbank all reporting similar readings.

If anyone has figured out what the silver lining or bright side to this debacle is, please let me know. I’ve got nothing.

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Filed under Photography, Politics, Weather

The Next Week

I’ve seen this meme a dozen places in the last 48 hours and it’s ringing so very, VERY true right now. Another one says, “It’s like the whole world is waiting for biopsy results on Tuesday.” That’s true too, although I’ve been feeling more like the characters in “Melancholia” or “Deep Impact” waiting for the comet or rogue planet to hit the Earth.

Let’s keep the faith, keep breathing, keep our sense of humor, and hope for a

over the next 72 hours.

In the meantime, we’ve been experiencing our first good windstorm of the winter, which meant that the roads this morning were littered with palm fronds (which can shred a tire in an instant), small tree branches, tumbleweeds, and the odd, migrating Halloween decoration. In our back yard,

We will rebuild!

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Filed under Memes, Photography, Politics, Weather

The Ventura County Gateway To Hell

I just hate it when the Ventura County Gateway to Hell opens up, especially when the wind is blowing from the west.

The smell of sulphur and brimstone can be horrible!

It was, however, a very cool looking effect for about two minutes at sunset. Timing, as always, is everything in life.

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Filed under Photography, Sunsets, Weather

Sunset Photons

All week they’ve been promising our first rain of the season for tomorrow – they lied. Or, at a minimum, they’ve reneged. Apparently the remnants of a tropical storm that fell apart off of Hawaii got sucked into the jet stream and sent our way, but it’s going to go more north.

We still get some nice, high, wispy clouds to ogle, but the chance of any actual raindrops is quickly approaching zero.

Of course, those nice, high, wispy clouds turn pink at sunset, so that’s nice also.

Enjoy the weekend! Don’t forget to take a moment to ogle the clouds!

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Filed under Photography, Sunsets, Weather

Maybe It Wants To Rain

Probably not. But it sure looks like it wants to.

There’s more going on than just the coastal low clouds and fog moving in. Through some of the gaps in the clouds it looked like some significant cloud building and cumulus clouds rising up in the afternoon heat. But no rain.

Driving home I could see virga falling from the cloud bases in a couple spots, but nothing was hitting the ground.

Our last measurable rain was in April, which is normal, and the forecast says there’s a 50%+ chance of a third of an inch or so on Saturday. That would be nice.

But I’m not going to hold my breath waiting. We’re not to the rainy season around here yet.

Can’t wait!

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Filed under Photography, Sunsets, Weather

And Now Clouds

Week after week after week of “clear & a million” when Comet A3 was in the morning sky and then rounding the Sun and unable to be seen at all.

Now, we’re a day or two away from it coming out from the Sun’s glare and popping up above the western horizon just after sunset and the clouds have started rolling into SoCal.

It’s all very pretty, I love clouds, and the high, wispy ones are very delicate and beautious, but…

…with all due respect, can I politely request that they GO AWAY for the next week or two?

Which god’s dog did I kick?

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Filed under Astronomy, Photography, Sunsets, Weather

Timing Is Everything

We’re getting some moisture in, which on top of the late summer/early fall heat wave (it was 111°F here the other day and it’s not supposed to cool off into the 80’s until at least Thursday next week) means it’s humid and we’re getting some high, chunky clouds.

I came out for air and brief walk just a couple minutes after sunset and there was still just a touch of some spectacular sunset color right at the horizon. But everything above that was no longer illuminated and was just gray and lumpy.

The security camera confirms that just ten minutes before this, there was a lot of color in the clouds. Maybe not the best ever, but pretty good.

No way to go back, no way to get a second chance tonight, no time machine. No Tardis, not even that huge black & white spiral thingie that I was talking about the other day from “The Time Tunnel.” As they say, timing is everything in life.

Fortunately, the Sun will rise tomorrow. Presumably, so will I, and tomorrow evening there will be another chance. I’ll try to be more mindful of what’s going on outside.

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Filed under Photography, Sunsets, Weather