Category Archives: Disasters

Flash Fiction: Board Room

This week’s Flash Fiction Challenge — is a repeat, because for the life of me, I can’t see where Chuck Wendig posted a blog entry or tweet with any mention of a contest this week. Okay, so the man’s entitled to take a week off. But I’m on a writing “mission from god”, so I picked a previous Challenge (this one from late April) and rolled the hypothetical, fifty-sided dice to get a 46, which gives me the character of  “the brutal businessperson.”

It turned out a little bit preachy, which I blame on flipping by “The Devil’s Advocate” on cable earlier today. This story was an interesting, dialogue-based scene to write as an exercise. As always, comments and constructive criticisms are appreciated.

BOARD ROOM

“I have to recommend against building this project,” Carson said. “The possible consequences could be catastrophic.”

There was silence in the board room as all eyes turned to the end of the table. The CEO did not appear to be bothered by the comment, but everyone knew that looks could be deceiving.

“What consequences, Carson? Every relevant department has concluded that this will be an enormously profitable venture.”

“I have no doubt that it will make money, sir. But I would bring your attention again to the report from our environmental consultant.”

The Chief Legal Officer turned his head slightly, not looking directly at Carson, turning only the minimal amount necessary to acknowledge his existence. “The EPA has already signed off on this project, Carson. You should know that.”

“Jason, I’m aware that the EPA has given the green light to this project. I’m also aware of how that approval was obtained, as is everyone else in this room.”

“Would you care to be more clear, Carson? I believe we’ve only followed our standard operating procedures.”

“I’m referring to the way the EPA was given only select parts of a highly edited report from our consultants, while both EPA personnel and our consultants were paid handsomely to ignore the discrepancies between the early versions and the final submission.”

“Is there any truth to that accusation, Jason?” asked the CEO.

“Sir, the EPA approved our final petition based on the information given to them by our consultants. The consultants were well paid by us. The information that was given to the EPA by our consultants and their testimony under oath at the EPA hearings were completely out of our control. If some of the senior EPA staff who recommended approval have careers with our consultant’s firm after they complete their careers at the EPA, that would not be unusual, nor would it be anything that we have any say in. It’s all completely legal and a normal state of affairs, as you know.”

“I understand, Jason. Christine, would you please remind Carson of the predicted financial return on this project?”

The CFO didn’t even need to look at her notes. “We estimate a minimum annual ROI of 25% beginning two years after construction, increasing to 40% or more by year ten. Our projected annual net profits over the first ten years are over one trillion dollars.”

The CEO turned back to Carson. “If we’re going to make that kind of return and nothing illegal is being done, what objections can you still have about this project?”

“Sir, the original environmental assessment, before Jason and his staff had it changed, warned that the drilling operations, refining facilities, and pipeline construction could have serious environmental side effects, particularly in terms of damage and accelerated melting of the permafrost across a region of hundreds of thousands of square miles.”

“Which is why we made engineering changes to allow for any civil engineering issues that might arise, which in turn led to changes in the final environmental report. The chances of an oil spill are infinitesimal.”

“Yes, sir, the odds of an oil spill are no more than one in fifty for any given year, and our engineering plan does allow for structural integrity of our facilities even in the event of changes in the permafrost. But that’s not the problem. There is a high probability that our facilities could cause massive melting of the permafrost, which will release trillions of tons of methane and carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The environmental damage of a major oil spill is nothing compared to that. Methane is a greenhouse gas that’s even more dangerous than carbon dioxide in its effect on climate change. Melting of the permafrost at an accelerated rate like this could result in an accelerated rate of global temperature increase that will be impossible to reverse.”

The CEO’s stare had gotten steadily more intense as Carson had continued to speak. “I’m disappointed by your sudden passion for this fear-mongering and nonsense from the liberal press, Carson. This company’s position of so-called ‘global warming’ is quite clear, as are the multiple studies we have funded proving it false.”

“Sir, you and this board have surrounded yourselves with sycophants and yes-men who have told you whatever you wanted to hear for decades. The truth is that proceeding with this project will likely bring catastrophic climate change, not in two hundred years or a hundred years, but in as little as fifteen or twenty years. In your lifetime, the entire world economy will collapse as a billion or more people become homeless and start to starve. There will be wars, there will be famine, there could be the end of our civilization as we know it. You will not be earning hundreds of billions a dollars a year when the world collapses into chaos.”

The ticking of the clock on the fireplace mantle in the conference room was the only sound for long seconds.

“You are dismissed,” the CEO finally said.

“Sir, the facts will not change just because you choose not to believe them.”

“Carson, you may leave voluntarily or you may be removed from this meeting. I will speak with you privately later.”

“I’ll leave, but this needs to be said now and said to all of you. This project will be the tipping point that pushes the entire planet over into a runaway greenhouse. You personally are taking actions that will destroy five thousand years of human civilization. I hope that you all live to see the day you realize what you’ve done, and remember you had the power to stop it, but chose not to. As for you, sir, I hope you will live to see how the lives of your family, of your children, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren are destroyed by your actions.” Carson turned on his heel and left the meeting room, cold silence a wall behind him.

Everyone waited for the CEO to proceed. After a moment of staring absently down at the documents on the desk in front of him, he raised his head and looked around the room.

“I apologize for my son’s unreasonable outburst. Now, let’s proceed. When do we begin construction?”

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Hockey Posts Are Coming And We’re Rocking And Rolling!

What a day. Two big things to mention.

First of all, while I’ve mentioned it from time to time, I do try not to really go overboard with my hockey fanaticism here. I understand that many people aren’t hockey fans, or even sports fans, and I mainly want to use this forum to talk about astronomy, space travel, photography, writing,  freakin’ idiots, music, books, movies, pets, critters, and on and on and on. I talk about sports sometimes, but I try to keep it to a dull roar.

That may be hard to do in the next week to two weeks — you may consider this to be an official warning. I’ll flag the posts, so if you couldn’t care less about hockey, there may be a day or two here or there that you can just skip reading.

Tonight, my beloved LA Kings won Game Seven of the National Hockey League’s Western Conference Finals, putting them into the Stanley Cup finals for the second time in three years. It was a hell of a game, finishing off a hell of a series, which in turn followed amazing series against the Anaheim Ducks and the San Jose Sharks. All three series went to seven games, thus making the Kings the first team in league history to get to the finals by winning three series that all went to seven games.

Earlier, the first series with the Sharks was also historic. We lost the first three games and were forced to win four in a row to advance, facing elimination with every game. We did it, becoming only the third team to ever pull that off. (Something like 90+ teams have tried before, and failed.)

Then the second series with the Ducks was the first time that two Los Angeles teams faced each other in the playoffs. The Angels and Dodgers haven’t done it, the Rams and Raiders never did it, and the Lakers and Clippers have never done it. In that series the Ducks pulled out to a three games to two lead, forcing the Kings to face two more elimination games, which they won.

Now we faced the Chicago Blackhawks, who eliminated us in the conference finals last year, going on to win the Stanley Cup. In this year’s rematch, the Kings went up three games to one, only to have the Blackhawks storm back and force a game seven. It was a close, close series, two very evenly matched teams, and a bounce or tip of the puck here or there could have made the difference either way. Tonight, of course, after an incredibly tense game where the Blackhawks went ahead 2-0, 3-2, and 4-3, only to see the Kings find a way to tie the game and force overtime.

There was a lot of screaming and yelling and blowing of the Vuvuzela Of Victory all night. When we won I blew the VOV long and loud enough to just about pass out.

It was fantastic!

I won’t be blathering on about the Kings every night, don’t worry — but I’ll be mentioning them and might have a longer piece here or there. (You’ve been warned.)

As if that wasn’t enough excitement, with about four minutes left in the third period, a 4-4 tie, edge-of-the-seat time — the seat started shaking from side to side, along with the rest of the house. We got a magnitude 4.2 earthquake with the epicenter near the intersection of the 405 Freeway and Mullholland Drive, right in the middle of the Sepulveda Pass, about ten or eleven miles away.

If that location sounds familiar, it’s because it’s almost the exact same place as the epicenter of the March 17th magnitude 4.4 earthquake we had. They’re saying that tonight’s shaker is not an aftershock of that March temblor, not quite in the same place and much shallower.

Let me tell you, when you’re already pretty wound up and barely breathing and on the edge of your seat, having the room rattle and shake for four or five seconds will not help calm you down!

Plus, as they always tell you, 5% of all earthquakes are actually “foreshocks” of bigger quakes in the next 24 to 48 hours. There wasn’t any major damage from tonight’s quake, and no injuries at all — but is there a magnitude 5.2 or magnitude 5.7 quake lurking for tonight or tomorrow morning? There’s a 95% chance that there isn’t, but a bigger quake could cause damage or injuries is still not that long of a bet.

Let’s hope it’s a quiet, non-shaken night. Ditto for tomorrow. The only earth-shaking event I want in Los Angeles is the celebration when we win the second Stanley Cup in LA Kings’ history.

In five games. Not seven. I don’t know if my blood pressure can take a fourth seven-game series.

Go, Kings! GO!!

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Hell Arrives Early In SoCal This Year

Anyone who’s lived any length of time in Southern California knows that there’s a semi-official “brush fire season” from about late July through late October.  This is true of many other places in the western United States (Texas, Oklahoma, Arizona, Colorado all come to mind), but here in SoCal we have a LOT of houses and businesses that get in the middle of those brush fires, while many of those other places have a few houses and a lot of timber.

This year the wildfires have arrived early. It’s only early May, yet there are nine different fires burning in San Diego County and a couple more in Los Angeles County. Flip through the fifty or so pictures in that link if you want to see what Hell On Earth looks like SoCal style.

A big part of the problem is drought. California’s in an extended, extreme drought condition. Past droughts have resulted from multiple years where the rainfall amounts have been below average – but there was still rainfall. This drought has been caused by multiple years where the rainfall has been drastically below normal and many places have gotten no rain at all in two or three years or more.

Then the temperatures rise and rise a lot, much earlier in the year than they have in the past. Here in SoCal the two terms you hear repeated every year at this time are “May Grey” and “June Gloom.” Normally we’re getting a marine layer for weeks at a time, which at least keeps the humidity up a bit and will occasionally thicken enough to give you some drizzle or light rain. Not this year. The last two days have been at or above triple digits, and tomorrow’s going to be even hotter. Along with that heat we’re getting single-digit humidity (remember the crack about how “it’s a dry heat?”) and the Santa Ana winds blowing at 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 70+ mph.

Some idiot flicks a cigarette butt out of their car window…

Someone’s clearing weeds and their lawnmower blade hits a rock and sparks…

Someone’s car dies and they pull off to the side of the road, into the knee high, bone dry grass, which comes in contact with the almost red hot brakes, exhaust, and catalytic converter on the underside of their car…

…and eight hour later you have 20,000 people evacuated, 5,000 acres burned, and 100 houses gone up in smoke.

And it’s only the second week of May and it’s only going to get drier and hotter all through June, July, August, and all the way to Christmas and maybe into 2015.

One of these years it’s just going be a year-round thing, with triple digits, howling winds, constant fires, and no water.

This has been the driest and hottest year in recorded history, going back to when records first started being kept in San Francisco prior to the Civil War.

It’s almost like…like…like the climate is changing…

No, wait, that can’t be. Marco Rubio said that we’ve got it all wrong, and as a Florida lawyer he obviously knows far, far more than the 99% of climate scientists and weather researchers who…

Sorry, that’s a rant (or fifty) for another day (or fifty). (FREAKIN’ IDIOTS!)

Please keep an eye on the SoCal fire situation, today and tomorrow and the rest of the year. The people evacuating tomorrow might be you, or someone you know. Like, me.

I don’t think Marco Rubio’s going to be able to change that.

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Yet Another LA Shaker

Eleven days ago we had a magnitude 4.4 earthquake and I wrote about it and earthquakes in general. The tl;dr version: “Earthquakes are scary and can be deadly.”

Tonight we’re shaking again, this time a little bit more “briskly”, shall we say. It probably wasn’t quite up to shaking “violently”, at least not from the reports I’ve seen yet, but it’s early. This only happened less than an hour ago.

Tonight’s preliminary reading was a magnitude 5.1 earthquake in La Habra, just south of the Los Angeles – Orange county line. (It was initially reported as a 5.4, but the instant readings usually are corrected down a bit as more data is received.) A 5.1 shake is still a long way from “The Big One” (it’s coming folks, really, really) but it’s big enough to cause some damage.

So far there are only reports of some “moderate” damage with no details on what that means, other than one report of a road being blocked by a rock slide and a local fire station that’s been damaged. All of Disneyland’s rides had their safety systems kick and and stop the rides, and now they’re shutting down the park early. A few pictures of pantries and shelves dumped on the floor are popping up. We hope that there aren’t any injuries, but a 5.1 is strong enough to potentially cause them. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if by morning there aren’t at least a few dozen homes and buildings with some significant damage.

The other bit of news that’s coming out early in this one is that the earthquake occurred right on the Puente Hills thrust fault, which is the fault that was responsible for the 1987 Whittier Narrows earthquake. That was a 5.9 quake that killed eight people, injured hundreds, destroyed 123 homes and over 1,000 apartments, damaged over 500 homes and 2,000 apartments, with a total of over $350 million in damage. Even more importantly, it’s the fault line that runs straight under downtown Los Angeles. The downtown with all of those really, really tall skyscrapers that have never truly had the earthquake building codes tested much out in the real world.

One might be tempted to say, “Well, so what? This wasn’t a 7.5 or an 8.5 quake on that fault and all of those buildings didn’t get tested. It was just a 5.1 in La Habra.” The thing is, it’s a known phenomenon that some earthquakes, particularly quakes in the high 4’s and 5’s, are “pre-shocks,” the opposite of aftershocks. It’s not a huge likelihood, but it’s sure enough to make the USGS, Cal Tech, the fire, police, emergency services, the city emergency command posts, and everyone else involved stay on their toes tonight. The odds drop off by the hour, and they’re sort of long to begin with. On the other hand, if it does happen, we’re all gonna be in a world of hurt.

The other thing that I’m noticing with this quake (and the one eleven days ago) is how much information is available instantly on social media, particularly Twitter. CalTech and the USGS have bots set up that you can follow (I do) which will tell you immediately the time and location and magnitude of any quake, with a link to a map. That bot has been lighting up Twitter, with over twenty aftershocks in the last hour.

I also follow the LA Times on Twitter, as well as several news reporters and stations. When something like this happens, you start finding out about it far, far faster than you ever did before. (Remember the shooting at LAX last year where the TSA agent got killed? The first news reports of that were from Twitter, particularly since there were some celebrities near the site of the shooting and they have LOTS of followers.) You need to use some common sense in interpreting the raw information and know who to trust and who to take with a grain of salt. Having said that, it’s astonishing to me to see how fast information gets out if you know who to follow and get it from.

Finally, the Angels and Dodgers were playing a pre-season, exhibition game at Dodger Stadium when the quake hit. Listen to one of the great voices of the game, Vin Scully, describe it. The man’s got a story for every occasion, and he’s always calm and comforting. I swear, he wouldn’t change that tone if the alien mothership landed in Dodger Stadium. And he would have a story that was relevant for the occasion.

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There’s This Nasty Little Disease

Let me start by saying that I am not a doctor or any other kind of medical professional. I’m just a voracious reader with a lot of general scientific and technical interests and background. I’m the perfect demographic to be a Scientific American reader. The point being that what I pass on to you here is what I understand, but I could well be wrong on some points, minor or major. Check your sources.

Twenty years ago I saw a review of a new non-fiction book by Richard Preston, “The Hot Zone.” The book is beautifully written and stunningly terrifying. It is a wonderful introduction to a class of diseases which are emerging from West Africa. Outbreaks of these diseases have been seen in Uganda, Angola, Zimbabwe, Kenya, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

These viral hemorrhagic diseases, such as Marburg and Ebola, are rare, which is good for the human race. It is somewhat difficult for the virus to spread. “Somewhat” is the key word. They’re not spread as easily as the common cold virus, or measles, or the flu. For the most part, you need to have direct contact with blood, bodily fluids, or tissues that are infected. You can also get infected by handling or eating infected animals (monkeys are suspected to be a key vector) or being exposed to infected guano in caves (bats are another).

They are also incredibly deadly with no known cures, which has the potential to be very bad for the human race. Ebola kills nine out of ten people it infects, and it’s not a pretty death. “Hemorrhagic” diseases are so named because they cause you to hemorrhage from just about every orifice in the body. The specifics and explicit details I’ll leave to those who want to read the book. (Highly recommended, by the way! But most definitely not for the faint of heart.)

So far, the outbreaks have been largely contained in Africa, with only a few cases of travelers coming home from Africa (for example, to Germany, the US, Netherlands) while infected. The number of deaths per outbreak has been relatively small, averaging a couple dozen each, with worst cases (so far) being about 225 deaths in one outbreak for Marburg (Angola, 2004-2005), 280 for Ebola (Zaire, 1976).

For comparison, the common flu is estimated by the CDC to kill on average about 36,000 people every year just in the United States. (What, Jenny McCarthy told you not to get a flu shot? And you’re freakin’ stupid enough to listen? You – out of the gene pool!) But looked at another way, about 15% or so of the population gets the flu in the average year, which makes roughly 50,000,000 Americans sick with the flu at some point or another during the year. 36,000 deaths out of 50,000,000 infections with 200,000+ hospital visits means that out of every 100,000 people who get the flu, about 725 (ballpark figures) die from it.

For Ebola, out of that hypothetical 100,000 people, more than 90,000 would die, not 725.

If that doesn’t get your attention, I don’t know what will.

This is the stuff that horror movies and books are made of, and Ebola has been a key player in several. Tom Clancy used it as a major plot point in “Executive Orders.” There have been several movies using plots involving Ebola, including 1995’s “Outbreak”, which unfortunately tried to turn Dustin Hoffman into an action/adventure movie hero. (That is an evil that does not sleep!) And I can guarantee that Seanan McGuire mixed some ebola facts and figures into her hypothetical zombie apocalypse “Newsflesh” trilogy (which you should also read because it’s excellent and some of the scariest shit I’ve ever read).

Except that Ebola and Marburg are not only the stuff of “apocalypse entertainment.” Take a look at that Ebola table I referenced about six paragraphs up. See where one of the Ebola strains is called “Reston?” Would that have anything to do with Reston, Virginia, which lies just between Dulles International Airport (ten miles to the west) and downtown Washington, DC (thirty miles to the east)? You bet it does, which is one of the stories of “The Hot Zone.” We were this close…

For now, I don’t sweat it much on a daily basis because these diseases are primarily on the far side of the world where I am highly unlikely to be, and they are hard to transmit between infected victims. I don’t know if someone could really weaponize the virus and make it highly contagious as Clancy and others have wondered. It makes for pretty good reading, but I don’t know that the CDC believes that it’s likely or even possible.

But once you’ve read the books mentioned above, I guarantee that when you are flipping through the online news, something like this headline from today’s New York Times will catch your eye every freakin’ time: “Ebola, Killing Scores In Guinea, Threatens Nearby Nations

Don’t worry. It’s probably not that big of a deal. It never has been before. What’s the worst that could happen?

Sleep tight!

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Yesterday’s Little LA Shaker

If you’ve been watching the news and have gotten past the missing Malaysian airliner and Chris Brown being in jail (give me a freakin’ break, since when is this “news”?) you may have heard that we had a little earthquake here in Los Angeles yesterday.

It made a lot of news for a couple of reasons.

The first reason is that it’s been a while since Los Angeles per se has had a significant earthquake. I heard one radio news station saying that it was the biggest one in the city of Los Angeles since the Northridge earthquake of 1994. The italics are important, since there have been plenty of other large (even fatal) earthquakes near Los Angeles in that time, but they’ve all been out in the desert past Palm Springs.

For those of you who don’t know from earthquakes, one of the things you learn about them is how to judge size and distance away from you. In short, if you’re near the epicenter, there’s a lot of shaking, often violent. (This is what you see in the movies.) But if you’re further away, the energy of the earthquake has spread out and damped down, much like the ring of waves surrounding a small stone dropped into a small pool. Literally, the earth is rippling up and down and back and forth like that. But if you’re away from the epicenter you get smaller, less violent, longer wavelength movement.

The 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake in the San Francisco area (often known as the World Series quake) was something like 400 miles from Los Angeles, yet many people here, myself included, felt it. In my case I was in a 4th floor office in a six-story building, and the mini-blinds started swaying and knocking, bookshelves banging slowly against the walls, the office door rocking back and forth. It felt more like the room was haunted than an earthquake. But it went on for three or four minutes, enough time for me to get on the phone and call home, where they (on solid ground) couldn’t feel it at all. I knew right away that there had been a really, really big earthquake but that it was far, far away.

Similarly, the “twin quakes” that hit out in the desert in 1992 were magnitude 7.3 and magnitude 6.5, with epicenters about 75 miles away from our house. The shaking here was more than enough to get us out of bed and into the hallway, but again, it was a long, slow rolling, so we knew it was something fairly big, but not near.

Yesterday, it was only a magnitude 4.4 shaker — but just eleven miles away as the crow flies. The first movement we had was “jittery” for about a second or two, then a very strong lateral movement. After that we had about eight to ten seconds of shaking back and forth, not terribly violent, but more than enough to let you know there was an earthquake going on, and fairly loud as the house creaked and moaned. Then it quickly faded away and quieted down.

If it’s your first earthquake, that’s a huge wake-up call, and not always a pleasant one. We all take for granted that the earth beneath our feet is immobile and solid. Until you live out here for a few years and you realize that the Universe has been lying to you about that in order to lull you into a false sense of security.

If it’s not your first earthquake, especially if you’ve lived through one of the magnitude 6.7, 6.9, or 7.2 shakers, is to hold on and immediately start wondering if it’s going to stop or if this is just the start. Often in those huge, killer, city destroying quakes, it shakes like that for the first five or ten seconds, and then totally cuts loose and the whole world turns upside down and the house falls down and the city burns and the freeways collapse and a lot of people die and the rest of us have no power or water or gas or phones for days and we’re picking up debris and rebuilding for months and we’re squeezing around closures and detours for years.

So for those first ten seconds or so, you’re really, really anxious about what the next ten seconds will bring.

Yesterday that next ten seconds brought about relief, a quick check of the house, and getting on Twitter and Facebook to tell everyone about it with a little nervous laugh. (Adrenaline will do that.) And then it’s time to start making fun of the local news anchors who were live on the air.

Because that’s the second big reason that yesterday’s relatively small shaker make national headlines. It happened while every single local Los Angeles station was in their morning news. The footage from each of them can be found online, and the late night comedians had a field day. Some are bizarre, some are scary, and at least one (the one I was watching live, KTLA Channel 5) was hilarious.

It was hilarious because of Chris Schauble’s shocked look, the way he held up his hand to cut off co-anchor Megan Henderson, and the way that they both immediately dove under their desk. Freeze frame pictures of Schauble and video of the desk diving went viral. I’ll admit (and so did they, on this morning’s news) some of it was pretty funny.

But here’s what to keep in mind while you’re laughing. If you’ve ever seen a television studio, they’re sitting there with dozens and dozens of large lights just above them out of camera view. When an earthquake hits, if it’s a magnitude 4.4, those lights sway and rock and make really scary rattling noises. If it’s a magnitude 7.4, those heavy, hot, electrified lights are going to drop on their heads in that “next ten seconds” and if they’re still broadcasting live you’ll see them get crushed, killed, and electrocuted.

From before you spend your first day in kindergarten here in earthquake country, you’re taught to get under something solid if you can when the shakers hit. A desk. A table. A chair. A countertop. On the side of the bed or a couch. If the building comes down, and you don’t know if it’s going to or not, but if it does, you want something solid and expendable above you.

We can laugh at the desk diving news anchors, because the only damage that I’ve seen was three or four bottles of hair products that fell off of a shelf in Encino and one cracked window. But next time, they might be the ones to live and be broadcasting the news afterward, while the guys who ignore it and soldier on will be a part of the statistics that the desk divers will be reporting.

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Memories Of January 17, 1994

Twenty years (and about seventeen hours) ago, at 4:31 AM on Monday, January 17, 1994, I and about fifteen million of my closest friends all got one of the rudest wake up calls in our lives. I’m speaking, of course, of the Northridge earthquake.

It was a magnitude 6.9 temblor but went off pretty much right under our feet. (Our house is less than six miles due west of the epicenter.) The maximum ground acceleration was huge, more than 1.8G. We immediately lost power, phone, water, gas, as did two million other people in the Greater Los Angeles Metropolitan Area. Freeways collapsed. Apartment buildings pancaked down onto their bottom floors. Homes, stores, shopping malls, office buildings, and parking garages were turned to rubble. Fifty-seven people died, 1,500 suffered major injuries, over 16,000 were treated for minor injuries. Over 100,000 people found their houses or apartments to be uninhabitable. The damage cost over twenty billion dollars.

There are plenty of good news articles out there today about what happened that night and in the days that followed. Here’s what I remember about our “adventure”.

They say the shaking actually only lasted 20 to 30 seconds. You have no idea how long that time can be when you’re woken up, it’s dark, everything’s moving and shifting and falling, there’s a roar everywhere like there’s a freight train coming through the room, and you’re trying to get to your kids’ rooms. I would have guessed the shaking to have gone on at least twice that long. I had furniture sliding about and the bedroom door banging open and closed. I knew immediately what was going on. I then proceeded to start to do a few things I wasn’t supposed to.

Living in Southern California, you get regular reminders, public service announcements, documentaries on PBS, and news stories about what to do and what not to do in an earthquake. A few highlights include:

  • Do NOT run outside if at all possible, many people are killed by debris falling on them. Being killed when the building collapses on you does account for a fair number of the deaths, but you’re still far safer staying inside.
  • Do NOT try to move around too much inside, there may be large items (like couches and dressers) sliding and (like bookcases) falling over. Try to get down on the ground near something heavy (like a table) and HOLD ON so your rock & roll around with it instead of letting it slam into you. If you’re in bed, try to get onto the floor next to the bed. You want some furniture above you if the roof does come down, it will buy you a certain amount of crawl space underneath.
  • Do NOT go stand in a doorway, although you’ve been told to since forever. There’s nothing special about doorways and you’ll get your fingers broken (or worse) as the door swings back & forth out of control.
  • STAY OUT of the kitchen, it’s a death trap. All of the cabinets and drawers may come flying open and flinging their contents around the room. Many of those contents are sharp and many are glass, which will shatter.
  • GET AWAY from windows, mirrors, shower doors, anything glass.
  • If you can get there safely, an excellent place to shelter is on the floor in an interior hallway. It usually will be one of the last places to collapse if the building does go down, there usually aren’t any windows, and there usually isn’t a lot of furniture there.

With that in mind, even in the panic of the moment, I knew what to do and remembered most of the high points. But instead of staying put, I was headed to the kids’ rooms to make sure they were safe. The shortest path would have led me through the kitchen, but I remembered to not go there (good thing, too) and swung through the dining room instead. I wasn’t able to stand at all. It was like being on a skateboard that was on marbles which were on ice. So I crawled, the whole time screaming as loud as I could, “GET IN THE HALLWAY! GET IN THE HALLWAY!”

About the time I got to the hallway door the shaking started to subside. It was pitch black. If memory serves me (it was twenty years ago), I found my son in the hallway on the floor as he had been taught, with Janet (my first wife, the kids’ mother) getting one daughter from her room (she had slept though it) while I stumbled in to grab the other daughter from her room (she also had slept through it). Almost immediately the aftershocks started. We rode out two or three significant ones as we grabbed flashlights. I gave one to Janet and the kids and told them to sit tight in the hallway. I grabbed the other flashlight, threw on some clothes and shoes, and started the mental checklist of things to check for damage.

Check for gas leaks and turn it off at the meter. Look for structural damage and broken glass. Look for other dangers, such as downed power lines, trees about to tip over or break, walls about to fall down. All things considered, we got out lightly enough. There was plenty of stuff tossed onto the floor (that stay-out-of-the-kitchen advice was really, really good) and a few cracks in the walls, but nothing that made us think that the house might fall down.

Outside we had some of our cinder block walls that were either down or badly cracked and leaning, but nothing major other than that. While outside, we started running into all of our neighbors doing their inspections. Everyone was checking on everyone else to make sure that no one was hurt, to make sure that none of the houses had collapsed or had major structural damage. Most people had some broken glass (not sure how we missed that at our place) and everyone was rattled, but it didn’t look like there were any major injuries on our block.

The “urban legend” you might have heard about  people calling 9-1-1 in Los Angeles to ask about the “weird lights” in the sky? Where people were wondering if they were related to the earthquake somehow? It’s true, and if you were out wandering around at 4:45 AM on January 17th, you would understand why. The sky was freaking brilliantly clear and sharp, stars everywhere. The Milky Way stretched right from the eastern horizon to the western, straight up through the zenith, where Jupiter was very bright. A crescent moon was in the east, having risen about an hour earlier.  I knew what it was and I loved that aspect of it, but I have no doubt that there was a significant portion of the population that quite literally had no clue at all about what the night sky looked like from a dark location.

For Los Angeles had suddenly become a dark location, almost as dark as the heart of the Mohave Desert a couple hundred miles east. There were lights from cars and trucks, and some places such as hospitals and radio stations had emergency generators, but for nearly a hundred miles in every direction, the electricity had died and it was pitch black. Except for that spectacular, marvelous sky.

We didn’t have much time to look. I turned off the gas, went back inside, got a portable radio, and sat down with Janet and the kids to try to figure out what in hell had happened. The news over the next few hours got more and more grim. Massive damage, the death toll rising, the list growing of freeways made impassable by collapsed bridges and overpasses.

At home, once the sun came up, we started the cleanup. Things got put back onto shelves, furniture got shifted back into place. With no power, no water, no television, and three small kids (9, 7, and 4) we were fortunate to have a whole freakin’ house full of books. We also had put some supplies aside for just such an emergency (perhaps not as much as we should have, but probably a LOT more than most folks) so we weren’t in any danger of going hungry or thirsty in the short term. We just might be eating weird stuff and eating it cold.

We used up as much as we could as fast as we could from the refrigerator, since all of that was going to bad in the first day or so. We had no water, so the toilets got a bit fetid after a day or so. At night we all slept in that hallway, in part to stay warm (it does routinely get down into the 40’s here at night in the winter) and in part because we were still having those lousy, stinking aftershocks.

I think that I hated the aftershocks more than just about anything.

The initial earthquake catches you completely off guard so you only have time to react. There’s no anticipation, no stressing out beforehand. And then you’re done and you’re either dealing with a new crisis (i.e. your house collapsed or is burning and you’re trapped) or you’re okay and it can only get better because you’ve now successfully lived through what may well be the worst thing that can ever happen to you!

But the aftershocks are different. For better or for worse, you’ve been traumatized and your nerves are shot. No matter how cleanly you got out as far as damages and injuries go, deep down inside you’re only keeping the screaming inside because you’re a grown-up. You work hard on being strong, being a grown-up, moving on, coping, and then an aftershock hits and you’re right back into that moment of terror.

And the aftershocks keep coming, and coming, and coming! They get less frequent with time and in general they get weaker with time, but that just serves to set you up for a bigger fall next time. Every time one hits you tense up, hold your breath, and your brain starts thinking, “Is this the next big one? When will it stop? Should I dive under the desk?” As they get less frequent you start to forget, to relax, and then, WHAM, there’s another one to remind you. I really, really got to dislike aftershocks.

That having been said, one of my coolest and most vivid memories of the days after the Northridge earthquake involves a strong aftershock. I was walking with the kids up to a neighborhood park so they could run around, play on the swings, and blow off some steam. It was late morning or early afternoon and we were walking along a long, straight street looking due north. There are two-story houses lining both sides of the street and a row of tall palm trees in the center divider. As I was looking up ahead at the far end of the street, I saw the sunlight reflecting off of the second story windows start to flicker and strobe, and the palm trees at that end of the street started to sway. I yelled for the kids to sit down on the sidewalk and we watched as the seismic wave came down the street at probably 50 or 60 miles an hour, the jiggling reflections and the swaying trees racing straight at us. I could actually see a small wave in the asphalt pavement, coming toward us as if there was a giant worm burrowing down the middle of the street. (“Shai Halud!”) The aftershock lasted five or ten seconds and then was gone. Very impressive!

Exact times get fuzzy, but I think the phones came back on late the next day (Tuesday) and we were able to call relatives and let them know we were okay. The water and gas came back on Wednesday so we were able to again flush and have hot showers and hot food. I distinctly remember the electricity coming back on because there were things turning on (the hallway light, computer, bathroom fan) that woke me up in the middle of the night. It might have been early Thursday morning or it might have been early Friday morning.

I’m pretty sure that the kids went back to school on the following Monday. I don’t remember if I went back to work before then — if I did, it was just for a couple of hours to check out damage at our offices.

It’s often said that the reason so few people died in the Northridge earthquake was because it occurred in the middle of the night on a holiday (MLK Day). Our office was a good example. Our suite was on the fourth floor of a very large building on Ventura Boulevard in Encino and it was trashed. Everything was on the floor, file cabinets tipped over, water damage from pipes that had broken in the floors above us. In my office, two big book shelves full of three-ring binders had come down right onto the desk (where I would have been sitting) and smashed the desk nearly in half. They also fell so that they completely blocked the door — we had to pop out the ceiling tiles, climb over the top and back down in, then tilt the book cases back up before we could open the door. Down in the building’s  lobby of wall to wall marble with giant inset display windows everywhere, sheets of marble had shed themselves from walls and smashed, cracking and breaking the floor as well, with plate glass cracking all up and down the hallways.

We moved on.

I and the three neighbors to the east, west, and south split the cost of replacing the cinder block walls between our yards. The freeways got repaired in absolute record time (three or four months for the Santa Monica Freeway), a real testament to what can get done when government abandons the red tape and just gets out of the way.

There was trash and debris everywhere. The procedure that was set up was to simply start piling debris at the curb and it would get picked up eventually. It worked, but “eventually” could be weeks, and just about everyone had a pile of bricks, wood, fallen trees, broken furniture, and the kitchen sink. I know that they kept picking up all of these piles for at least a year.

We now have much a more extensive assortment of supplies set aside for the next emergency, although we still occasionally talk about doing even more. We have six backpacks (five for the humans and one for the pets) in the front entryway with water, food, clothes, flashlights, radios, tools, and so on in case we have to bug out on short notice. (This is a good idea for everyone, regardless of where you live, because if you don’t have earthquakes [and wildfires], you will have blizzards, tornadoes, hurricanes, floods, or something.)

Another thing that would be a huge difference if we had a similar earthquake today is the availability of portable communication and computing devices. Twenty years ago I don’t think I had a cell phone yet, and I most certainly didn’t have a tablet. I might have had a laptop. Now, while the cellular network might go down, most disaster plans call for getting the cellular network up ASAP so that folks can call for help and receive information. I would expect that within forty-eight hours (and probably within twenty-four) we would be able to get at least limited access to the internet, which would be a huge help.

It was a life-changing event, totally unexpected, totally out of our control. But we survived it. As bad as it might have been for us, it was so much worse for others. In one sense, we dodged a bullet. I hope that we learned from the experience.

We’ll never forget the experience as a whole. (Even if the fine details might fade and get fuzzy with the passage of time.)

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“Cold Snap” In Los Angeles

I have recently made fun of the responses Los Angeles residents and drivers have to the slightest bit of rain. Well, now it’s gotten “cold” here, so I’m going to do it again.

Just to be clear, that’s cold as in “below freezing overnight in some of the valleys” as opposed to cold as in “any exposed skin gets frostbitten in thirty seconds or less.” Granted, there are spots up in the high desert getting down into the teens, as well as plenty of sub-freezing temperatures up in the local mountains where they’re making snow for the ski resorts above 5,000′. (You didn’t know Southern California had ski resorts less than two hours’ drive from downtown? Skiing in the morning, surfing in the afternoon — people do it all the time here.) But I’m talking about down here in “the basin” and the valleys, which are all at sea level or maybe 500′ to 800′ above it.

As a result, while huge swaths of the country are experiencing scenes like these (stay safe out there, it looks ugly!), here in La-La Land for two days in a row we have had frost on the grass and windshields in the morning. And I have PROOF!

photo 1

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photo 3I can’t even imagine the terror and panic we would get in Los Angeles if there was actually snow and ice on the roads, especially during rush hour. We have absolutely zero-point-zero equipment for plowing or clearing roads, so if some freak storm ever comes through and dumps three or four inches on the freeway, we’ve got no choice but to wait for it to melt.

In addition, a huge percentage of the commercial buildings and houses here have flat roofs, with just a teeny-tiny slope built in so that rain drains off. I can guarantee that none of them were designed to hold up under a few thousand pounds of snow.

If it ever happens, they might as well just nuke us from orbit. It’ll be the only way to be sure.

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Oklahoma Tornadoes

I just heard Jim Cantore of The Weather Channel describe the destruction in Moore, Oklahoma being as if whole houses were put into blenders. There was a report earlier of debris from Moore falling from the sky in the Tulsa area, over a hundred miles away.

It’s not that houses were pushed off of their foundations and folded up. These modern, sturdily built, brick & cinder block houses have been disintegrated. The FEMA and NWS folks don’t even know how high the winds were, since the instruments they use get max’d out and destroyed at those levels.

As of now, 51 dead in Oklahoma, including 20 children. 140+ in the hospital, half of them children. Those totals may well rise tomorrow when daylight returns and more progress can be made on figuring out who’s missing and who’s safe. Damage will be in the billions.

And the storms didn’t just hit Moore and then leave. The line of storms has marched east and now there are tornado watches from Texas and Arkansas into Missouri into Illinois, with severe thunderstorm warnings as far as Chicago. For example, there are reports of a tornado in or around Hannibal, Missouri. I love Hannibal, went there as a kid, have taken my family there as a parent. Take care, Hannibal!

I grew up in Kansas City, in the heart of “Tornado Alley”. I remember the sirens going off and my mother herding my brothers and sisters and I into the cellar while the winds howled.

I remember hot summer days when it was humid and roasting and clear as a bell when the thunderheads started marching up over the horizon, only their tops showing first when they were forty or fifty miles away, then marching towards us getting bigger and bigger until over half the sky was black as a coal mine with brilliant white thunderheads above and lightning flashing below while the rest of the sky stayed cloudless and blue.

Then it would be over us and it would get still and quiet for a few minutes. Suddenly the temperature would drop ten degrees or more. Out of nowhere the wind would pick up and be blowing a gale in just a couple of minutes. The golf-ball sized (or bigger) hail and rain would start and the sirens would come on and scare the crap out of us.

We didn’t have Doppler radar in the early 1960’s, we didn’t have any radar at all, and there wasn’t any Weather Channel, or cable, or even more than a couple of local television stations. I remember at one point there was a theory that you could get an indication of when a tornado was in your area by looking at the random snow & static on the TV when you weren’t tuned into a channel, a sort of precursor to Heather O’Rourke’s “They’re heeeere!” in “Poltergeist”. It was thought that there might be some electric component to the tornado, static charge or something lightning related, and that might make some sort of patterns in the random static. I remember more than once when my mom and little brothers and sisters would be heading to the cellar, I would be turning to the television to an “open” channel to look at the static to see if I could tell if a tornado was near.

These days we have tools for seeing these storms that are just astonishing. I was looking at how their Doppler radar was showing debris clouds as opposed to thunderstorms because it was sensitive enough to tell the difference between the radar echoes off of flying pieces of houses and trees and the radar echoes off of raindrops. We have TV, radio, sirens, the Internet, text messages, cell phones, Twitter, Facebook, a thousand times more detection and warning technology than we had fifty years ago – and it’s not enough.

Everyone wants to help tonight. To make cash donations or to donate blood or platelets, see the Red Cross’s site at redcross.org. To donate $10 (billed to your cell phone) text “REDCROSS” to 90999, it just takes a few seconds. If you don’t like the Red Cross for some reason, you can text “STORM” to 80888 to donate $10 to the Salvation Army.

Two other things I would recommend. First, before you donate to anyone you might not be 100% sure of (for this disaster or for ANY charitable donation), check them out on charitynavigator.org . Perhaps one of the saddest things about a disaster like this is how it causes the human cockroaches to crawl out from under the rocks they hide under and take advantage of those trying to do something good. Make sure that the money you donate gets to those you intend it to help.

Secondly, everybody and their cousin will be lining up to donate blood in the next day or two. It happens after every disaster, be it a tornado, the Boston Marathon bombing, an air crash, or whatever. That’s great, it’s needed, it helps — but blood and platelets have a very limited shelf life, only 42 days at most for blood, FIVE DAYS for platelets. So in a fortnight, a month, six weeks, two months, when the disaster has faded from memory and it’s no longer on the front page or even being mentioned any more, REMEMBER THEN TO DONATE BLOOD TOO! That’s when they’ll be running short of blood and platelets again, not this week. (And once you see how easy it is, why not just start donating whole blood every eight weeks or platelets every two weeks like clockwork – but that’s a rant for another day.)

Speaking of which, in the background the ad on The Weather Channel is the Geico ad about their customers being “about as happy as Dracula at a blood drive”. Coincidence? Random chance? Bad taste? Let’s go with random chance.

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